Predictive Risk Factors at Admission and a "Burning Point" During Hospitalization Serve as Sequential Alerts for Critical Illness in Patients With COVID-19.

Background: We intended to establish a novel critical illness prediction system combining baseline risk factors with dynamic laboratory tests for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods: We evaluated patients with COVID-19 admitted to Wuhan West Union Hospital between 12 January and 25 February 2020. The data of patients were collected, and the illness severity was assessed. Results: Among 1,150 enrolled patients, 296 (25.7%) patients developed into critical illness. A baseline nomogram model consists of seven variables including age [odds ratio (OR), 1.028; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.004-1.052], sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (OR, 4.367; 95% CI, 3.230-5.903), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR; OR, 1.094; 95% CI, 1.024-1.168), D-dimer (OR, 1.476; 95% CI, 1.107-1.968), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH; OR, 1.004; 95% CI, 1.001-1.006), international normalised ratio (INR; OR, 1.027; 95% CI, 0.999-1.055), and pneumonia area interpreted from computed tomography (CT) images (medium vs. small [OR, 4.358; 95% CI, 2.188-8.678], and large vs. small [OR, 9.567; 95% CI, 3.982-22.986]) were established to predict the risk for critical illness at admission. The differentiating power of this nomogram scoring system was perfect with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.960 (95% CI, 0.941-0.972) in the training set and an AUC of 0.958 (95% CI, 0.936-0.980) in the testing set. In addition, a linear mixed model (LMM) based on dynamic change of seven variables consisting of SOFA score (value, 2; increase per day [I/d], +0.49), NLR (value, 10.61; I/d, +2.07), C-reactive protein (CRP; value, 46.9 mg/L; I/d, +4.95), glucose (value, 7.83 mmol/L; I/d, +0.2), D-dimer (value, 6.08 µg/L; I/d, +0.28), LDH (value, 461 U/L; I/d, +13.95), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN value, 6.51 mmol/L; I/d, +0.55) were established to assist in predicting occurrence time of critical illness onset during hospitalization. Conclusion: The two-checkpoint system could assist in accurately and dynamically predicting critical illness and timely adjusting the treatment regimen for patients with COVID-19.

Predictive Risk Factors at Admission and a “Burning Point” During Hospitalization Serve as Sequential Alerts for Critical Illness in Patients With COVID-19

Background We intended to establish a novel critical illness prediction system combining baseline risk factors with dynamic laboratory tests for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods We evaluated patients with COVID-19 admitted to Wuhan West Union Hospital between 12 January and 25 February 2020. The data of patients were collected, and the illness severity was assessed. Results Among 1,150 enrolled patients, 296 (25.7%) patients developed into critical illness. A baseline nomogram model consists of seven variables including age [odds ratio (OR), 1.028;95% confidence interval (CI), 1.004–1.052], sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (OR, 4.367;95% CI, 3.230–5.903), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR;OR, 1.094;95% CI, 1.024–1.168), D-dimer (OR, 1.476;95% CI, 1.107–1.968), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH;OR, 1.004;95% CI, 1.001–1.006), international normalised ratio (INR;OR, 1.027;95% CI, 0.999–1.055), and pneumonia area interpreted from computed tomography (CT) images (medium vs. small [OR, 4.358;95% CI, 2.188–8.678], and large vs. small [OR, 9.567;95% CI, 3.982–22.986]) were established to predict the risk for critical illness at admission. The differentiating power of this nomogram scoring system was perfect with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.960 (95% CI, 0.941–0.972) in the training set and an AUC of 0.958 (95% CI, 0.936–0.980) in the testing set. In addition, a linear mixed model (LMM) based on dynamic change of seven variables consisting of SOFA score (value, 2;increase per day [I/d], +0.49), NLR (value, 10.61;I/d, +2.07), C-reactive protein (CRP;value, 46.9 mg/L;I/d, +4.95), glucose (value, 7.83 mmol/L;I/d, +0.2), D-dimer (value, 6.08 μg/L;I/d, +0.28), LDH (value, 461 U/L;I/d, +13.95), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN value, 6.51 mmol/L;I/d, +0.55) were established to assist in predicting occurrence time of critical illness onset during hospitalization. Conclusion The two-checkpoint system could assist in accurately and dynamically predicting critical illness and timely adjusting the treatment regimen for patients with COVID-19.

Incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019: new implications for intervention and control.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been causing serious disasters to mankind. The incubation period is a key parameter for epidemic control and also an important basis for epidemic prediction, but its distribution law remains unclear. This paper analyzed the epidemiological information of 787 confirmed non-Wuhan resident cases, and systematically studied the characteristics of the incubation period of COVID-19 based on the interval-censored data estimation method. The results show that the incubation period of COVID-19 approximately conforms to the Gamma distribution with a mean value of 7.8 (95%CI:7.4-8.5) days and a median value of 7.0 (95%CI:6.7-7.3) days. The incubation period was positively correlated with age and negatively correlated with disease severity. Female cases presented a slightly higher incubation period than that of males. The proportion of infected persons who developed symptoms within 14 days was 91.6%. These results are of great significance to the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Modelling the initial epidemic trends of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, Germany, and France.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has fast spread to over 200 countries and regions worldwide since its outbreak, while in March, Europe became the emerging epicentre. In this study, we aimed to model the epidemic trends and estimate the essential epidemic features of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, Germany, and France at the initial stage. The numbers of daily confirmed cases and total confirmed cases were extracted from the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation reports of WHO. We applied an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to fit the epidemic trend and estimated corresponding epidemic features. The transmission rate estimates were 1.67 (95% credible interval (CrI), 1.64-1.71), 2.83 (2.72-2.85), 1.91 (1.84-1.98), and 1.89 (1.82-1.96) for Italy, Spain, Germany, and France, corresponding to the basic reproduction numbers (R0) 3.44 (3.35-3.54), 6.25 (5.97-6.55), 4.03 (3.84-4.23), and 4.00 (3.82-4.19), respectively. We found Spain had the lowest ascertainment rate of 0.22 (0.19-0.25), followed by France, Germany, and Italy of 0.45 (0.40-0.50), 0.46 (0.40-0.52), and 0.59 (0.55-0.64). The peaks of daily new confirmed cases would reach on April 16, April 5, April 21, and April 19 for Italy, Spain, Germany, and France if no action was taken by the authorities. Given the high transmissibility and high covertness of COVID-19, strict countermeasures, such as national lockdown and social distancing, were essential to be implemented to reduce the spread of the disease.